European Central Bank Executive Board member Philip R. Lane said a second wave of oil and gas price increases is likely to keep inflation higher for longer, with a return toward the ECB’s target beginning from mid-2027. Economic growth should remain modest if the shock does not intensify, while government spending provides temporary support.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore found that the financial system retains strong capital, liquidity and debt-servicing buffers despite higher global financing costs and risks from geopolitical tensions and an artificial intelligence related downturn. MAS will keep the countercyclical capital buffer at 0% for 2027, while stress tests showed banks and insurers remaining above capital requirements and most funds able to meet severe redemptions.
Australian Securities & Investments Commission Commissioner Simone Constant warned that private credit governance, controls and underwriting have not kept pace with rapid growth, with stress emerging in property-linked exposures. ASIC expects all participants to assess and improve their practices against its 10 principles, including realistic valuations, stronger liquidity and conflict management, and clearer disclosure. Multiple investigations and active surveillance are underway, with findings due in the coming months.
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission has imposed 21 day interim stop orders on three Remara Cash Management Fund products over deficient target market determinations. ASIC raised concerns about permitted portfolio allocations, capital preservation claims, access timeframes and a low risk rating for products that are not capital protected or guaranteed.
The Agency for Regulation and Development of the Financial Market of the Republic of Kazakhstan has warned that fraudulent investment platforms are using imitation websites, social media advertisements and AI-altered content to solicit money and confidential data. Consumers should verify firms’ licenses and offers through official sources, avoid unofficial applications and never disclose payment details, passwords or SMS codes.
The South Korea Financial Services Commission has detailed the KRW 600 billion second Public Participation Growth Fund, which will be sold from September 30 through 10 banks and 14 securities firms. Half of the offering will initially be reserved for lower-income investors, while previous subscribers are excluded. The five-year, high-risk fund offers tax benefits through dedicated accounts but does not guarantee principal and may have limited secondary-market liquidity.
The Kyrgyzstan Ministry of Finance discussed deeper cooperation with Citibank on international settlements, investment and access to international financial infrastructure.
Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan discussed capital market development, renminbi internationalization, financial infrastructure and mutual market access with China International Capital Corporation in Beijing. He encouraged the firm to deepen its participation in Hong Kong's markets and expand its international business, particularly in Belt and Road countries.
The Australian Financial Complaints Authority has begun preparations for its statutory 2027 independent review and is working with regulators on its scope, governance and reviewer appointment. The review will assess its performance and consider operational and service improvements following changes to its jurisdiction, membership and rules.
The Kyrgyzstan Ministry of Finance discussed international settlements, investment cooperation and greater access for Kyrgyz banks to international financial infrastructure with Citibank.
Kyrgyzstan's Ministry of Finance and Citibank discussed expanding financial and banking cooperation, including international settlements, investment and Kyrgyz banks’ access to global financial infrastructure.
Kyrgyzstan’s president reviewed StoneX Group’s international market operations and met a delegation led by CEO Philip Smith.
Bank of the Lao P.D.R. and Standard Chartered discussed macroeconomic conditions, monetary policy direction, reserve management and investment.
The New Zealand Treasury has published an independent review finding that the Reserve Bank’s initial COVID-19 response was appropriate but monetary stimulus was excessive and withdrawn too late. The review links the resulting overheating and 7.3% inflation peak to framework weaknesses, including reliance on medium term forecasts, insufficient scenario analysis and inadequate focus on real interest rates. It recommends a more systematic policy strategy, stronger analytical safeguards and regular readiness testing for alternative monetary tools.
The South Korea Financial Supervisory Service reported that domestic banks’ won-denominated loan delinquency rate rose to 0.63% in July 2026, from 0.56% in June. Business loan delinquencies increased to 0.78%, while the household loan rate edged up to 0.42%.
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Anna Breman said the economic recovery is continuing but remains uneven, with stronger conditions in parts of the South Island. Persistent increases in global oil prices could raise inflation above the September forecast in the near term, and the Reserve Bank will review incoming data before its October decision.
Senate Banking Committee ranking member Elizabeth Warren and six other senior Senate Democrats urged President Donald Trump to tighten controls on China’s access to advanced chips and manufacturing equipment. Ahead of a state visit involving Chinese President Xi Jinping, they also called for continued support for Taiwan and pressure on Beijing over its reported assistance to Russia and Iran.
The U.S. Department of Justice secured a guilty plea from Nigerian national Olamide Shanu for conspiracy to commit money laundering in international sextortion and romance fraud schemes. The schemes targeted approximately 150 American victims and generated more than USD 2.5 million for Shanu. He faces up to 20 years in prison at sentencing on Dec. 15.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission reviewed substantial progress toward mandatory Treasury clearing, with daily FICC-cleared volumes about 165% above pre-proposal levels. It is considering tailored relief for certain non-U.S. and inter-affiliate repo activity while seeking further detail on possible volume caps. The SEC does not currently plan to extend the Dec. 31, 2026, cash-market or June 30, 2027, repo deadlines.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued guidance limiting when designated contract markets may list “mention market” contracts tied to an individual’s words, appearances or interactions. Exchanges must address the products’ heightened manipulation risks and provide complete, contract-specific analysis in Part 40 submissions.
The US Federal Reserve Board approved BancFirst Corporation’s acquisition of Spirit BankCorp and SpiritBank, including the operation of branches at SpiritBank’s existing locations.
Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter said inflation risks remain tilted to the upside and another cash rate increase may be needed if those risks materialize. Slower growth and a housing downturn supported the August decision to hold rates, while household finances show no systemic signs of distress.
Peru's Securities Market Superintendency has opened admissions for its in-person securities market specialization program running from January through March 2027. Eligible advanced students and recent graduates may apply until Nov. 1, 2026, for training covering capital markets, investment management, financial technology, sustainability and professional standards.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis has appointed Kirsten Simon as vice president in Risk and Compliance. She will lead the Federal Reserve System’s data privacy program and the Bank’s Records and Information Management team.
Hanzo van Beusekom of the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets called for unified European action as financial markets undergo rapid change. His speech focused on resilience, artificial intelligence and five conditions for successful centralized supervision in Europe.
The U.S. House Financial Services Committee examined proposals to tailor regulation for smaller, lower-risk community banks and support new bank formation. The Main Street Capital Access Act would raise and periodically adjust certain regulatory thresholds, while allowing supervised capital phase-ins for new banks. Witnesses argued that existing compliance burdens increase credit and housing costs and contribute to bank consolidation.
The Bank of Cape Verde has begun visits to all six authorized and supervised microfinance institutions. The program will assess their operations and gather input to improve supervision and the regulatory framework.
Mexico’s CONDUSEF and the Mexican Institute of Public Accountants have signed an agreement to expand financial education through professional and business networks. They will distribute educational materials and provide training on financial decisions, fraud prevention and consumer rights.
The Central Bank of Paraguay’s Monetary Policy Committee unanimously held the monetary policy rate at 5.50%, maintaining a neutral stance amid low inflation and resilient economic activity. It projects 2026 growth of 4.5% and year-end inflation of 3.3%, converging to the 3.5% target, while monitoring heightened external risks.
Greece’s Ministry of National Economy and Finance has introduced enhanced primary residence protection under the Out of Court Debt Settlement Mechanism. Borrowers may obtain a settlement based only on the home’s value in exchange for liquidating other property, while compliant borrowers are protected from enforcement against the primary residence.
The Dominican Republic's Pensions Superintendency awarded its pension education certification to The Butcher Shop Distrito Gastronómico, the first gastronomic products retailer to receive it. The designation requires more than 70% of employees to complete education on the pension system and related financial benefits.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas lowered its 2026 Texas employment growth forecast to 1.2 percent, largely because of first-quarter benchmark revisions. The forecast implies 173,600 additional jobs and employment of 14.5 million by December, while the statewide unemployment rate fell to 4.4 percent in August.
The Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization reported more than CAD 16.2 million in sanctions and fines for 2026, with 16 suspensions and 10 permanent bars. It also introduced an exam-based proficiency regime, revised guidance for non-tailored advice and launched the InnovateSafe regulatory sandbox. Its Strategic Plan has been extended by one year while the board searches for a successor to President and CEO Andrew Kriegler.
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission will hold public roundtables on emerging financial technologies and market structures. The first forum, focused on artificial intelligence and agentic finance, is scheduled for Oct. 28, 2026.
The Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures found that more than 1,000 organizations across 56 countries or areas have issued TNFD-aligned disclosures, double the 2025 total. More than 70% of surveyed market participants supported mandatory reporting, while 802 organizations, including financial institutions with USD 26.6 trillion under management, have committed to adopting the recommendations.
The Bank of Italy will hold public events in Forlì on Sept. 22-23, 2026, focused on payment innovation, the digital euro and electronic payment fraud. The program includes an expert roundtable, an open day and guidance on fraud prevention and consumer protection.
The Central Bank of Poland published the results of its September 21, 2026 sale auction for National Bank of Poland bills, conducted as its main open market operation.
The Central Bank of Russia has begun publishing anonymized data on over-the-counter ruble interest rate swaps, with weekly updates subject to a seven-calendar-day lag and plans to expand the statistics to other derivatives.
The Luxembourg Ministry of Finance has completed the country’s first vertical assessment of risks from breaches, circumvention or nonimplementation of international financial sanctions related to terrorist financing and proliferation financing. Luxembourg’s cross-border financial flows and international business create exposure, particularly for legal structures and certain nonfinancial sectors, although existing public and private controls significantly reduce the risks.
The National Bank of Moldova has completed a three-year project to embed continuous learning and knowledge sharing across the institution. The initiative created professional communities, development programs, learning tools and collaboration mechanisms that will support staff development, institutional capacity and wider knowledge exchange.
Mexico’s National Commission for the Protection and Defense of Financial Services Users handled 4,114 complaints in Coahuila from January through August 2026, a 13.4% annual increase, and recovered MXN 21.5 million for users. Multiple banking institutions generated 61.3% of complaints, while 26.1% of all cases involved possible fraud.
The Norwegian Ministry of Finance urged the European Commission to ensure planned improvements to bank regulation do not weaken banking system resilience.
The Network for Greening the Financial System has updated its supervisory guide for climate and nature-related financial risks. The guide expands coverage of nature risks, transition planning, adaptation, stress testing, legal exposure and disclosures, while offering proportionate recommendations that supervisors can adapt to their mandates and resources.
The UK Financial Conduct Authority has taken Hunter Jones to the High Court over allegations that it conducts regulated activity without authorization. The regulator is seeking to stop the activity and require money to be returned to investors, but the court has not determined the claim.
The National Securities and Stock Market Commission of Ukraine and the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry signed a memorandum to help businesses raise financing through capital markets. They will provide practical guidance to prospective issuers and collect company feedback on barriers to inform possible deregulation and regulatory changes. The initiative also emphasizes investor protection and stronger enforcement.
The Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan scheduled an actuarial certification assessment for Süsən Azər qızı Orucova at 2 p.m. on October 12, 2026, with identification required for admission.
The Bermuda Registry General has restricted eligibility for certified birth certificates to reduce identity theft and fraud risks. Access is now limited to the person named, specified relatives and authorized, legal or public officials, while public register searches and plain copies remain available.
The Croatian Financial Services Supervisory Agency ordered Mobil Leasing to remedy risk management, interest rate, fee and recordkeeping deficiencies, including reviewing certain charges dating from 2023. It also warned an individual for trading Jadroagent shares during a 30-day closed period and approved Mediobanca Premier and Intesa Sanpaolo each to acquire an indirect 10% to 19.99% holding in Generali Osiguranje.
European Central Bank survey analysis found that the Middle East conflict raised euro area firms’ cost, selling price and wage expectations, with trade firms, exporters and SMEs reporting the greatest exposure. Expected demand and profits weakened, particularly among highly exposed firms. About two-thirds of respondents were seeking alternative suppliers, investing in energy efficiency or renewables, or finding alternative energy sources.
The Angola Capital Markets Commission joined the country’s delegation for the latest FATF review under enhanced monitoring. Angola presented and defended progress made from April through August 2026 on its agreed action plan to strengthen controls against money laundering and terrorist financing.
The Kazakh regulator approved three senior accounting appointments at ForteBank and its Home Credit Bank subsidiary, covering one chief accountant and two deputy chief accountant roles.
The Agency for Regulation and Development of the Financial Market of the Republic of Kazakhstan outlined a shift toward preventive, risk based supervision of microfinance organizations. Priorities include stronger firm-level risk controls, proportional oversight, self regulation of microfinance and collection activities, and enhanced borrower protection. Conduct supervision will assess fair customer treatment throughout the financial product lifecycle.
The U.S. Department of Justice secured a 112 month prison sentence for former Nodus International Bank CEO Tomás Niembro Concha over a fraud that obtained at least USD 24.9 million from the bank and a conspiracy to evade Venezuela related sanctions. Niembro must also forfeit more than USD 16.9 million and serve three years of supervised release.
The U.S. Department of Justice secured a four-year prison sentence against former Vitol trader Javier Aguilar for bribery schemes involving officials linked to Ecuador’s and Mexico’s state-owned oil companies. Aguilar must also forfeit USD 7.13 million and pay a USD 100,000 fine.
The New York State Department of Financial Services will begin directing large frontier AI developers to register in November 2026, ahead of RAISE Act compliance from January 2027. Covered developers must publish safety frameworks, report critical incidents within 72 hours and submit quarterly catastrophic-risk assessments to the new DIGIT office. Marc Gilman has been appointed deputy director for the law’s implementation.
The European Central Bank is preparing to invest a small portion of its own funds in tokenised securities, with settlement in central bank money through Pontes. Initial purchases will target euro-denominated public sector and European supranational securities. The Executive Board will determine operational details and timing after the preparatory work.
The European Central Bank announced the launch of Pontes, allowing wholesale tokenised asset transactions to settle in central bank money. An initial group of market participants and distributed ledger technology operators can use the service immediately, with functionality and operating hours set to expand toward full implementation by 2028. The longer-term Appia initiative is developing a blueprint for an integrated tokenised financial ecosystem.
Central Bank of Syria Governor Safwat Raslan called for concrete Arab economic and banking partnerships to support production, employment, reconstruction and sustainable growth during a regional conference in Amman.
The Central Bank of Paraguay has launched its CDA-d system, allowing authorized banks and finance companies to offer fully digital savings deposit certificates. The central bank’s Securities Depository will centralize registration, custody, clearing and settlement. Digital and paper certificates will coexist for at least two years.
The Central Bank of the Republic of China reported lower interbank lending and bond repo activity in August 2026, while bond, derivatives and gold trading increased. The 10-year government bond yield ended at 1.69%, and the renminbi appreciated 0.41% against the U.S. dollar to 6.7198.
People's Bank of China Gov. Pan Gongsheng and senior Hong Kong officials discussed financial market connectivity, the offshore renminbi market and Hong Kong’s role as an international financial center.
The People’s Bank of China consulted 15 foreign financial institutions on improving business conditions and further opening the financial sector. Governor Pan Gongsheng reiterated plans to expand two-way market access, improve cross-border payments and facilitate international renminbi use while maintaining an appropriately accommodative monetary policy.
The Central Bank of Kenya and the National Treasury are consulting on a draft policy and bill to modernize the national payment system. The bill would repeal the existing National Payment System Act and introduce a framework covering competition, innovation, risk management, consumer and data protection, and financial stability.
The Egypt Financial Regulatory Authority approved 11 firms and entities across investment funds, acquisition focused venture capital, reinsurance brokerage, debt collection and health care program administration. Four new collection registrations raised the total to eight firms, while two provisional health care administration licenses increased that total to 11.
Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission Chairman Dr Kelvin Wong previewed a September 23 statement setting out strategic actions for the capital markets. The agenda will support Hong Kong’s offshore renminbi, asset and wealth management, and risk management functions while balancing market development with investor protection and integrity.
Andorra's government has approved draft legislation preparing the Andorran Financial Authority to access external euro liquidity, including through the Eurosystem repo facility for central banks. The authority could use high-quality bank collateral to obtain and channel funding to eligible, solvent institutions, while Andorra’s EUR 250 million international reserve framework remains unchanged.
The Bank of the Lao PDR has launched a 10-day training program on party inspection work in the banking sector. Its 13 modules cover inspection, anti-corruption work, complaint resolution, investigations and the handling of inspection findings.
The National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic fined three individuals KGS 17,500 each for unlicensed cash foreign currency exchange and four Bishkek exchange bureaus KGS 55,000 each for regulatory violations.
National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic staff participated in a nationwide cleanup on Sept. 19 to mark National Cleanliness Day.
The National Bank of the Republic of Tajikistan received TJS 38 million in bids for a TJS 100 million credit auction at an annual rate of 7.03%.
Poland's Ministry of Finance backed an EU windfall tax on oil companies, with proceeds potentially used to reduce energy and fuel costs for vulnerable households and businesses. At an informal EU finance ministers' meeting, Poland also supported deeper banking integration, safeguards for cryptoasset risks and investment in domestic AI capabilities and public-sector applications.
The Czech National Bank will issue 200,000 anniversary CZK 5,000 banknotes on Sept. 22, 2026, marking 100 years since its predecessor began operations. The legal tender notes will be available at four central bank cash offices in exchange for banknotes of the same value, with a limit of three per person.
The Central Bank of Cyprus reported a EUR 19.276 billion contractual loan balance in the credit facility management and credit acquiring sector at June 30, 2026. The nonperforming loan ratio remained broadly unchanged at 94.6%, while properties held by credit acquiring companies declined in both number and market value.
The Egypt Financial Regulatory Authority is reviewing creditor proposals to improve the services, procedures and electronic system of the Egyptian Movable Collateral Registry. Notices reached 285,015 at the end of August 2026, with a value of about EGP 4.6 trillion. Proposed changes will undergo technical and legal assessment before implementation priorities are set.
The Central Bank of Egypt reported that expatriate remittances increased 28.1% to about USD 29.7 billion in January-July 2026, including a 20% rise to USD 4.5 billion in July.
The Croatian Financial Services Supervisory Agency reported that mandatory pension fund assets reached EUR 29.1 billion and UCITS assets rose 1.8% to EUR 4.9 billion in August. Insurance premiums increased 6.9% year over year in the first eight months of 2026, while Zagreb Stock Exchange turnover fell 46.6% from July.
Ukraine National Commission on Securities and Stock Market Chair Oleksii Semeniuk outlined plans to diversify a market in which government bonds account for about 80% of securities activity. Priorities include simpler issuance, personal investment accounts, corporate and municipal bonds, securitization, virtual assets rules and tokenization. The number of unique investors reached 271,300 as of Aug. 1, 2026, nearly 12 times the level at the start of 2022.
The Spanish National Securities Market Commission reported that listed companies’ adherence to governance recommendations rose to 88.7% in 2025, while women’s board representation reached 37.4%. Average pay per director increased 12.2% to EUR 477,000, and executive director pay excluding extraordinary items was 42 times average employee remuneration. The regulator also called for clearer disclosures on nonfinancial performance measures and significant remuneration changes.
Norway’s Department of Finance has identified the financial institutions considered systemically important in Norway.
Ceres estimates that regenerative agriculture could protect up to USD 500 million in annual profits for some food companies as climate related commodity shocks intensify. At 3 degrees Celsius of warming by 2060, financial impacts for buyers of six major commodities could reach two to six times current levels. Ceres is also expanding its Food Emissions 50 investor initiative under the new name Cultivate.
CDP identified USD 397 billion in anticipated corporate impacts from water risks, based on disclosures from more than 6,500 companies. More than one-third lack a systematic water-risk process, while USD 45 billion of anticipated impacts arises upstream in supply chains. Companies also reported USD 925 billion in anticipated water-related opportunities.
The Oman Financial Services Authority will explain the new Executive Regulation of the Securities Law at a September 23 conference. The briefing will cover key changes, compliance requirements and implementation mechanisms during the adjustment period.
The Financial Conduct Authority has announced cross-sector measures to expand protection insurance coverage after finding that 58% of adults lack life insurance, critical illness cover or income protection. Initiatives will target disproportionately unprotected groups through consumer prompts, awareness work and improved adviser discussions. The FCA plans no new market-wide measures but will act against firms that fall short of existing requirements.
The Pensions Regulator found strong pension scheme interest in private markets but identified barriers including capability gaps, opaque fees and limited suitable opportunities. It will challenge trustees through supervision to assess whether their investment strategies, scale and governance support such investments in members’ interests.
The Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority has appointed Partners Group Chief Financial Officer Joris Gröflin to the Swiss Takeover Board from Jan. 1, 2027, through the end of 2027. He will succeed Beat Fellmann, who steps down at the end of 2026.
The World Bank Group’s International Finance Corporation priced a GBP 500 million floating rate note at SONIA plus 30 basis points, its first SONIA linked issuance since 2019. The bond matures on Dec. 15, 2031, with banks and bank treasuries receiving 77% of the allocation.
The South Korea Financial Services Commission reviewed KRW 102.6 trillion of Chuseok-related funding and an expanded KRW 12.3 trillion support package for small businesses. Nine banks are piloting an AI-based credit assessment using nonfinancial data, with seven more expected to join by year-end. Debt restructuring and interest-cost relief measures remain part of the support framework.
The OECD found that Ukrainian SME financing improved in 2024, with stronger loan demand, lower rates and more than 20% growth in net hryvnia-denominated business lending. Outstanding SME loans reached UAH 521 billion, while the Affordable Loans 5-7-9% program provided UAH 94.7 billion through more than 25,000 contracts. Wartime risks remain the principal constraint on further credit expansion.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development found that Finnish SME lending recovered to EUR 12.7 billion in 2024 and average borrowing costs fell to 4.54%, but access constraints persisted. Payment delays reached 17 days and bankruptcies rose to a 2008-2024 high of 3,488. Start-up financing rebounded to about EUR 1.4 billion, although private venture capital continued to decline.
The Central Bank of Montenegro has begun implementing its Needs Assessment recommendations and established a Coordination Body to oversee priorities, deadlines and resources. The measures cover policy, supervision, payments, technology, data, cybersecurity and staffing to prepare the bank for ESCB membership upon Montenegro’s EU accession and later Eurosystem integration.
The OECD reported that new Danish SME lending declined 8% to DKK 42 billion in 2024, while SME interest rates fell from 8.97% to 4.91%. Venture and growth capital remained high at EUR 1.117 billion, and SME bankruptcies dropped from 2,448 to 1,999. Denmark’s Entrepreneurship Package allocated more than DKK 2 billion to financing mandates and made several government-backed schemes permanent.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development reported that outstanding Polish SME loans rose by PLN 37.2 billion to PLN 270.6 billion in 2024, reaching 61.34% of business lending. SME nonperforming loans and interest rates declined, while public guarantees continued to support access to credit. Venture capital investment strengthened in the first quarter of 2025 despite continued weakness in some microenterprise lending categories.
The Bank of France estimates that GDP will grow by 0.1% in the third quarter of 2026 as market services support activity and industry recovers from summer disruption. Businesses expect stronger industrial and services growth in September, but weak construction order books, political uncertainty and input cost pressures continue to weigh on the outlook.
The OECD finds that capital markets can support growth when they address specific financing constraints, with the clearest evidence relating to equity funding for innovation. Market based debt offers less certain advantages over bank lending and can create risks when credit expands excessively. The shift toward private markets and greater market concentration may also weaken disclosure, price discovery and diversification.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development identifies concentrated suppliers, upstream dependencies and severe data gaps in European Union medical supply chains. It proposes international monitoring, joint procurement and pooled reserves, supported by stronger early-warning indicators, private-sector data sharing and interoperable digital systems.
National Bank of Hungary Governor Mihály Varga said the AI based Central Fraud Detection System has reviewed almost 390 million domestic instant transfers in real time. Addressing an informal EU ministerial and central bank meeting, he called for stronger international cooperation and a balance between innovation and regulation to support competitiveness and counter cyberfraud.
The UK Financial Conduct Authority found that firms closed 238,396 suspected money mule accounts in 2025, while repeated account use and cash-outs concentrated between the second and fifth mule accounts indicated organized criminal networks. Firms should strengthen risk-based detection, linked-account analysis and intelligence-sharing, with the FCA set to monitor their responses through supervision.
The European Central Bank found that the 2026 energy shock has so far been smaller than the 2021-22 crisis, while increased renewable generation has weakened the link between gas and wholesale electricity prices. Wholesale gas prices are feeding through to consumer gas inflation more quickly, but electricity price pass-through remains uneven and broadly unchanged from 2022.
A European Central Bank working paper finds that supply-driven inflation narratives are associated with higher inflation risk premia in the euro area and United States, while demand-driven narratives correspond with lower premia. The relationship holds across multiple maturities and is not explained away by standard macroeconomic, survey or large language model-based measures.
A European Central Bank working paper links fragmented capital buffer frameworks to higher capital headroom and weaker corporate lending growth. A one standard deviation increase in fragmentation is associated with 26 to 36 basis points of additional headroom and 0.5 to 0.9 percentage point lower lending growth, with the strongest effect among banks holding little spare capital.