The Moroccan Capital Market Authority released its December 2024 report on share buy-back programmes and liquidity contracts, as per Decree No 2-02-556. Maroc Telecom reported buying 382,000 shares and selling 8,406 shares, while BCP's programme, running until October 2025, saw 107,884 shares purchased and 1,381,072 sold in December.
HM Treasury will maintain the exemption for pension funds from the clearing obligation for certain derivatives, with secondary legislation to prevent its expiration in June 2025. This decision follows stakeholder feedback on derivatives in liability-driven investment strategies and concerns over liquidity pressures from mandatory clearing. HM Treasury will review the policy with UK regulatory authorities.
The Central Bank of Eswatini revised its inflation projections for 2025–2027, citing higher food inflation due to adverse weather and risks from exchange rates and oil prices. The 2025 annual inflation forecast increased to 5.25% from 4.87%, with quarterly forecasts also adjusted upwards. For 2026 and 2027, forecasts were set at 4.80% and 4.57%, respectively, reflecting lower oil price assumptions and a slightly improved rand.
The Federal Reserve Board released a research paper developing predictive models for financial distress and closure of US colleges from 2002 to 2023. The study highlights pervasive missing data among institutions that close and demonstrates that machine learning models using comprehensive data outperform existing federal screening tools. Simulations suggest that demographic shifts could significantly increase college closures.
The Federal Reserve Board released a research paper introducing a framework for estimating time-varying impulse response functions in structural vector autoregressions using external instruments. The approach enhances kernel-based estimators for nonparametric time variation and provides asymptotic distributions, remaining usable with weak instruments. An empirical example evaluates the changing impact of global oil supply news shocks on US industrial production.
The Federal Reserve Board released research analyzing the impact of the Volcker Rule on trading revenue at the 21 largest US trading firms during the COVID-19 crisis. The study found that trading profits aligned with volume-driven fees and widening bid-ask spreads, suggesting the rule contributes to financial stability and reduced market shock exposure.
Australia's Department of the Treasury proposed the Scams Prevention Framework (SPF) after introducing the Scams Prevention Framework Bill 2024. The SPF mandates enforceable obligations on banks, digital platforms, and telecommunications providers to prevent, detect, and disrupt scams, with penalties up to AUD 50 million for non-compliance. It also establishes mechanisms for intelligence sharing and consumer redress, including a single external dispute resolution avenue via the Australian Financial Complaints Authority.
The European Central Bank's Macroprudential Bulletin outlines a framework to assess financial stability risks from leveraged alternative investment funds (AIFs), highlighting hedge funds and liability-driven investment (LDI) funds as most vulnerable. Using AIFMD, EMIR, and SFTR data, it reveals LDI funds' sensitivity to interest rate shocks and significant leverage in relative value hedge funds. Stress tests indicate substantial potential losses for LDI funds under interest rate shifts, with a broader European Systemic Risk Board analysis forthcoming.
The European Central Bank's Macroprudential Bulletin evaluates the Financial Stability Board's proposed minimum haircut framework for non-centrally cleared securities financing transactions, finding it would reduce leverage among euro area non-bank financial intermediaries. The analysis shows a 13% reduction in leverage on repo, with the largest borrowers experiencing a 42% decrease. The impact varies, with smaller declines for entities at the 75th and 90th percentiles.