The Bank of Canada released the fourth-quarter 2025 Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations, showing the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE) indicator edged down and remained subdued as concerns over high prices and trade-conflict uncertainty continued to weigh on households. The decline was driven by a modest deterioration in perceived financial health and weaker spending intentions, while labour market perceptions improved slightly from low levels. Respondents reported a higher perceived likelihood of missing a debt payment and a slightly higher chance of losing their job, alongside a higher reported chance of finding a job or voluntarily leaving a job. Spending plans remained weak, with high prices, economic uncertainty and elevated housing costs still the most cited barriers, and three-quarters of consumers saying they would not pay more than an additional 10% for Canadian-made products; households with equity holdings reported less negative real spending expectations than those without. Inflation perceptions and one- and two-year expectations stayed above pre-pandemic levels, but long-term inflation expectations eased below the pre-pandemic average; tariffs remained the most frequently cited inflation driver, though less so than in the prior quarter, and about three-quarters of those citing tariffs expected their effects to persist for more than one year but fewer than five years.
Bank of Canada survey shows consumer expectations index dips in Q4 2025 as debt payment and job-loss worries rise
The Bank of Canada's fourth-quarter 2025 Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations indicates a slight decline in the CSCE indicator due to concerns over high prices and trade-conflict uncertainty, with modest deterioration in perceived financial health and spending intentions. Inflation perceptions remain above pre-pandemic levels, though long-term expectations have eased, and tariffs are still a significant inflation driver.