The Czech National Bank published its August survey of 14 domestic and two foreign analysts, showing that most expect the two-week repo rate to remain at 3.75% after the forthcoming monetary policy meeting and at the one-year horizon. The one-year inflation forecast held at 2.6%, while the three-year estimate fell by 0.1 percentage point to 2.1%, closer to the central bank’s target. Five respondents expect a 25-basis-point rate increase at the next meeting, while 12 expect the rate to be unchanged in one year. Analysts expect inflation to move gradually toward 3% in the coming months, driven by food, fuel and energy prices, with restrictive monetary policy and a strong koruna moderating the pressure. The 2026 gross domestic product growth forecast declined by 0.1 percentage point to 2.0%, while the 2027 forecast remained at 2.4%. Nominal wage growth forecasts rose to 7.0% for 2026 and 5.7% for 2027, while exchange rate projections remained broadly stable at CZK 24.26 per euro in one month and CZK 24.15 in one year.
Czech National Bank survey shows most analysts expect rates to remain at 3.75%, three-year inflation outlook slips to 2.1%
The Czech National Bank’s August analyst survey shows most respondents expect the two-week repo rate to remain at 3.75% at the next meeting and in one year. The three-year inflation forecast eased to 2.1%, while the one-year estimate stayed at 2.6%. Analysts lowered their 2026 growth forecast to 2.0% and raised their nominal wage growth forecast to 7.0%.