The National Bank of Denmark published a working paper finding that firms that adopted artificial intelligence in 2023 recorded employment growth 6% below their pre-adoption trend after two years and 11% below trend relative to non-adopters by late 2025. The results describe differences between self-selected adopters and non-adopters and do not establish that AI adoption caused the employment changes. The shortfall was entirely concentrated among adopters with fewer than 100 full-time employees and reflected lower recruitment rather than layoffs. Employment in AI-exposed occupations was about 25% below trend, compared with 7% elsewhere, while wages did not respond. Large adopters maintained overall headcount on trend but shifted employment toward less AI-exposed occupations. Economy-wide employment remained relatively unaffected because the shrinking adopters employed too few workers to materially change the aggregate. An industry-level decomposition attributed about one-quarter of the relationship between AI exposure and weaker employment to adoption, with the remainder largely reflecting differences in industry composition.
National Bank of Denmark working paper finds AI adopters' employment growth 11% lower by late 2025
A National Bank of Denmark working paper finds that 2023 AI adopters recorded employment growth 11% below trend relative to non-adopters by late 2025. The shortfall was concentrated in firms with fewer than 100 employees and resulted from lower hiring, particularly in AI-exposed occupations. Economy-wide employment and wages remained relatively unaffected.