The Central Bank of Russia published its quarterly Banking Sector review, highlighting a late-2024 slowdown in lending and projecting a return to more moderate credit and deposit growth in 2025 alongside weaker profitability. Corporate lending growth decelerated to 2.9% in 2024 Q4, with full-year growth at 17.9%, and is expected to rise by 8–13% in 2025, partly reflecting repayment by companies that received payments under government contracts. Mortgage portfolio growth slowed to 1.5% over the quarter and 13.4% over 2024, with 2025 growth projected at 3–8% amid reduced market-based mortgages at high interest rates. Consumer lending contracted by 2% in 2024 Q4 but grew 11.2% over 2024, with 2025 growth estimated at between -1% and +4% due in part to tight monetary and macroprudential policies. Corporate deposits rose 11.9% and household deposits 26.1% by end-2024, with 2025 deposit growth expected at 5–10% and 7–12% respectively. The review assumes a slight reduction in net interest margin and a significant increase in cost of risk, bringing sector profits down to RUB 3.0–3.5 trillion.
Central Bank of Russia forecasts slower credit growth and lower bank profits in 2025
The Central Bank of Russia's quarterly Banking Sector review indicates a slowdown in lending in late 2024, with moderate credit and deposit growth expected in 2025 and weaker profitability. Corporate lending growth decelerated to 2.9% in Q4 2024, with projections of 8–13% growth in 2025. Consumer lending contracted by 2% in Q4 2024, with 2025 growth estimated between -1% and +4% due to tight monetary policies.