- Decision
- Raise
- Rate change
- 25 bps
- Reference interest rate
- 6%
The National Bank of Serbia’s Executive Board raised its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 6% to prevent significant second-round effects from the energy shock and preserve medium-term price stability, following holds at 5.75% from November 2025 through October 2026. It also raised the deposit and lending facility rates to 4.75% and 7.25%, respectively. Inflation increased in September, primarily reflecting base effects on food and household cleaning product prices, alongside higher fuel prices. The central bank expects inflation to exceed the upper bound of its 3±1.5% target band in 2027 before returning within the band by year-end. It raised its growth outlook for 2026, citing stronger-than-expected economic resilience and agricultural production, but lowered its 2027 forecast because of a higher comparison base, geopolitical tensions and rising energy prices. Prolonged conflict in the Middle East and persistently elevated oil, natural gas and electricity prices are increasing the risk of broader spillovers into production costs, inflation expectations, wages and other prices. Future policy decisions will depend on incoming data, with price and financial stability remaining priorities while supporting economic activity and employment.
Rate evolution
From June 2025 through October 2026, the National Bank of Serbia kept the key policy rate unchanged at 5.75%, extending the pause. The hold reflected actual and expected inflation and uncertainty, with mid-2025 decisions balancing weather- and drought-driven food inflation and an oil-price rise from Middle East tensions against softer domestic activity, while subsequent decisions pointed to the margin-capping decree, lower imported cost pressures, exchange-rate stability and earlier easing as lending and Serbia Expo 2027-related investment supported growth.
On 10 September 2026, the Executive Board again held the rate at 5.75%, citing actual and expected inflation and risks from the international environment, as year-on-year inflation remained within the 3±1.5% target band at 1.9% in July and real gross domestic product growth accelerated to 3.8% in the second quarter. On 8 October 2026, the Executive Board held the rate at 5.75% as year-on-year inflation rose to 2.2% in August and flagged increased upside risks to its inflation projection from the prolonged energy shock and higher global primary commodity prices.
The Executive Board subsequently raised the policy rate by 25 basis points to 6%, citing actual and expected inflation and domestic and international risks, to prevent significant second-round effects from the energy shock and preserve medium-term price stability. Year-on-year inflation rose to 4.1% in September, mainly because of a low base for food and household chemical prices, while the National Bank of Serbia expected persistently high energy prices, higher global prices of other primary commodities, increased imported inflation and food base effects to push inflation above the target band in 2027 before a return within it by end-2027.